FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — A closely watched hurricane forecast provided some good news on a stormy Thursday, despite last week’s premature start to hurricane season.
Colorado State University announced a slight reduction in its initial forecast for hurricane season and now calls for a six hurricanes rather than seven. The university’s Tropical Meteorology Project also reduced its forecast for major hurricanes — those with winds of 111 mph or higher — from three to two.
The university cited the likely absence of El Niño, a warming of the Pacific Ocean west of South America that causes high-altitude windshear that tears apart incipient hurricanes. And it said unusually cool temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean would deprive hurricanes of the warm water that fuels them.
“We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have approximately average activity,” states the university’s report.
Despite last week’s appearance of Subtropical Storm Alberto, a full week before the “official” start of the season, the Colorado forecast reduce the number of likely storms from slightly above-average prediction issued April 5.
The Colorado State forecast falls at the low end of a forecast released last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which called for five to nine hurricanes, of which one to four would be major hurricanes.
Both outlooks call for significantly less activity than last year, when a devastating season produced 10 hurricanes, including two Category 5 killers that generated winds of 175 mph or more. Among these was Hurricane Irma, which buzzed up the Florida peninsula and caused the power outage that led to the deaths of 12 patients in a Hollywood nursing home.
The Colorado State forecast calls for a total of 13 named storms, which means tropical storms or hurricanes.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, with the largest number of storms typically forming during a peak that runs from mid-August to late October. Scientists note that even an average or below average season can produce storms that devastated areas where they make landfall and caution against taking the wrong message from a reduced forecast.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” stated the Colorado State report. “And they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
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