LIHUE — Kauai could be looking at between three and six tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific in the 2018 hurricane season, a number lower than the predictions over the last several years but still within the realm of a normal-to-above-average season.
Long-term averages for the Central Pacific are between four and five tropical storms in a season. Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Robert Ballard with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is predicting an activity level of 40 percent chance of above-normal, 40 percent chance of a normal, and a 20 percent chance of below-normal levels.
“We’re looking at an 80 percent chance of near-to-above normal tropical storms in the Central Pacific,” Ballard said during the Wednesday announcement of the 2018 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook.
Neutral conditions — as opposed to an El Nino or La Nina cycle — are setting the stage for the 2018 hurricane season and that usually points to a tropical storm average of between four and seven tropical cyclones.
There could be a shift to a weak El Nino throughout the season, and with it comes the potential for more tropical storms, Ballard said.
“With El Nino conditions, you have a more-active hurricane season. That average is 6 to 7,” he said.
In 2017, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center predicted five to eight tropical cyclones.
Only two tropical storms entered the Central Pacific last season, though — Fernanda and Greg. Neither reached the islands.
“It was a break after a couple of really busy years in 2015 and 2016 with multiple threats to the Hawaiian Islands,” Ballard said.
Seven tropical cyclones tore through the Central Pacific in 2016 and 16 tropical storms were recorded in the region in 2015.
Though 2017 was a quiet season and the prediction is low for the 2018 hurricane season, Ballard emphasized it only takes one storm to trigger emergency situations.
“It doesn’t take a tropical cyclone to cause major impacts to the Hawaiian Islands,” he said. “You don’t even need a tropical storm. If the conditions are right, you can get flooding.”
