• China: Bombs and butter China: Bombs and butter St. Louis Post-Dispatch — July 25, 2005 Earlier this month, Gen. Zhu Chenghu of China threatened to rain nuclear bombs on the United States. Defend Taiwan in a war with China,
• China: Bombs and butter
China: Bombs and butter
St. Louis Post-Dispatch — July 25, 2005
Earlier this month, Gen. Zhu Chenghu of China threatened to rain nuclear bombs on the United States. Defend Taiwan in a war with China, he warned, and “the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds . . . of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.”
Chinese diplomats disavowed the remarks, which Gen. Zhu described as his personal view, but a general does not speak such blood-curdling words to foreign journalists without approval from above. A message was sent.
Then, on Thursday, the Chinese took a small step toward raising the value of the yuan. China has been under mounting pressure from America and Europe over a cheap-yuan policy that keeps Chinese factories humming at the expense of those in the West.
The two incidents illustrate the twin problems of dealing with China. The Chinese economy is growing at an astounding 9 percent per year, a growth rate built largely on foreign trade. Its $162 billion trade surplus with the United States is unsustainable. Over the long run, it’s not good for either nation.
The world must find a way to manage the economic growth of China without sparking trade wars or financial upheavals. Last week’s move on the yuan could be a mere feint intended to deflect western pressure for trade sanctions. Or, it could be a first measured step toward a rational solution.
As China gains economic clout, its government’s brand of touchy, saber-rattling nationalism becomes more worrisome. That touchiness is rooted in the memory of humiliation inflicted by foreigners, from the Western colonial concessions of the 19th century, and it is rooted in the more recent memory of Japanese atrocities during the World War II occupation.
That wounded pride explains the orchestrated national spleen-venting over Japanese textbooks, the 2001 U.S. spy plane collision and the mistaken U.S. bombing of China’s embassy during the Kosovo campaign. It has much to do with China’s oft-repeated threats to attack Taiwan, which seem extreme to everyone except the Chinese.
As China gains power, that nationalism becomes more worrisome. China’s authoritarian government lacks the natural restraint of voters or of dissenters free to challenge government assumptions that can lead to war.
The Pentagon recently reported that China is rapidly building its military with a goal of extending its influence across Asia. In the future, its leaders “may be tempted to resort to force or coercion more quickly to press diplomatic advantage, advance security interests or resolve disputes,” the report concluded.
If more muscle combined with nationalist passions tempt Chinese leaders to attack Taiwan, the United States and the world would be faced with a crisis more serious than any since at least the 1962 Cuban missile crisis with the Soviet Union. The United States would feel compelled to come to Taiwan’s aid, resulting in a war between heavily armed countries that possess nuclear arsenals.
The goal for the West should be to keep melding China into the world economic system in ways that are fair to all sides. The more China’s prosperity is linked to the rest of the world, the less likely it will be to shatter those links through war.
In the meantime, the United States must maintain a military powerful enough to deter any challenge, while avoiding unnecessary saber-rattling of our own.
