LIHUE — While the 2018 hurricane season forecast has been released for the Eastern Atlantic region, experts in the Central Pacific won’t be releasing their predictions until late May.
That’s according to staff at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, who said Thursday that they’re still compiling data for the 2018 Central Pacific hurricane prediction.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, and trends have been volatile over the past few years for the Central Pacific.
The 2017 season was the quietest the region has had in 10 years, and the 2015 season saw 16 tropical cyclones, twice as many as had been the average in years past.
In fact, the 2015 hurricane season was the busiest since 1992, when Hurricane Iniki ripped the roof off of Kauai. There were 11 tropical cyclones recorded that year, with five the following year and another spike to 11 in ’94.
Nine tropical cyclones came through the Central Pacific in 1997, and the number stayed below five annually until 2009, when it spiked to seven.
After a period of three years when only one tropical cyclone came through annually, the numbers climbed again to the peak in 2015, and then began to decline.
In 2017, there were just two cyclones that came through, though predictions at the beginning of the season were five to eight cyclones.
In the 2017 summary, John Bravender, National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist, said both storms entered the region in late July.
He said it was unusual for the season to shut down after the July cyclones, though.
“We had this big debate going on in the outlook, whether it was going to stay neutral or go to El Nino. We went to La Nina waters and, after July, it was clear,” Bravender told TGI during the 2017 summary.
The two storms were Tropical Storm Fernanda, which formed July 20-22 and sustained maximum wind speeds of 50 miles per hour, and Tropical Storm Greg.
That storm turned into a depression by the time it entered the Central Pacific region, with sustained maximum wind speeds of 35 mph. By comparison, Hurricane Iniki hit Kauai with wind speeds of 145 mph.
In the Atlantic, preseason forecasts issued Thursday by Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project point to an intense season, though not as busy as 2017.
The forecast predicts seven hurricanes, three of which are expected to be at Category 3 intensity or higher, and 14 named storms.
It could be another chapter of ruthless hurricanes in the Atlantic Region, which was hammered with 10 hurricanes back to back last year — which added to the 17 named storms and six major hurricanes in 2017.
While residents of the U.S. East Coast, and places like the Caribbean and Puerto Rico, have a general idea of what to expect, Kauai will have to wait just a bit longer for their predictions.
“We’re working on it,” representatives from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said.
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Jessica Else, environmental reporter, can be reached at 245-0452 or jelse@thegardenisland.com.
Plenty form in the warm fertile Pacific but fall apart as they reach the mountains and cooler water. Hurricanes do not like mountains. Hurricane rich Florida’s highest elevation is 345 ft. Let’s not see gas lines on Kauai for storms that don’t come within 400 miles.