For as crazy as the playoffs have been, the regular season seems to have remained a pretty good indicator of talent. The four teams still vying for an NBA title are each conference’s top two seeds, so after all the
For as crazy as the playoffs have been, the regular season seems to have remained a pretty good indicator of talent. The four teams still vying for an NBA title are each conference’s top two seeds, so after all the long series and potential upsets, the playoffs have reached a rather predictable plateau.
No. 1 Indiana Pacers (56-26) vs. No. 2 Miami Heat (54-28)
The Eastern Conference Finals get underway today with the matchup that seemed the only possible confrontation for most of the season. The Heat appear to be peaking as they aim for a third consecutive NBA championship. Miami is 8-1 through the first two rounds and despite not having the home-court advantage this time, the Heat are a heavy favorite.
That’s mostly because the top-seeded Pacers went through a second-half swoon and have been pushed hard in the first two rounds by the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards. There was a point of the regular season where it looked like Indiana was the hungriest, grittiest and maybe even best team in the NBA. That look has eroded to the point where the Pacers nearly became just the sixth No. 1 seed to ever lose in the first round. Something happened during the course of the season to cause friction between the team and chisel its chemistry.
Despite that, Indiana fought through a seven-game win over Atlanta and won three games on Washington’s floor in the second round. While it hasn’t been the route they hoped to take, the Pacers are exactly where they wanted to be: in the Eastern Conference Finals and with home-court advantage.
The Heat had no trouble sweeping through Charlotte, then put away Brooklyn in five games. Miami played its regular season as pure postseason preparation, resting Dwyane Wade so he could be as close to full strength as possible right now. They’ve been rewarded. Wade is averaging 17.9 points and shooting 50 percent from the floor.
But, as we all know, the team will go as far as LeBron James can carry it. James is putting up 30 points, 7.1 rebounds, 4.7 assists and shooting 56 percent in the postseason. He also has to guard the opposing team’s best player for much of each game.
Indiana has wanted Miami ever since it lost Game 7 of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. The Pacers won’t be intimidated, but they can’t be relied upon to put up the type of effort it’s going to take to derail LeBron and the Heat’s speeding locomotive to the Finals.
Prediction: Heat in 6.
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs (62-20) vs. No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder (59-23)
The Western Conference Finals is part six of the never-ending “old guys vs. young guys” narrative that the Spurs seem to be starring in every year. Sure, Tim Duncan has been in the league since before anyone had ever heard of Monica Lewinsky, but here are the Gregg Popovich-led Spurs with the best record. Again.
The Thunder knocked off the Spurs to reach the Finals two seasons ago and swept San Antonio during the regular season, so Oklahoma City’s dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have given the vets plenty of trouble. But as we saw in the Miami-Brooklyn series, regular-season records don’t always translate to the playoffs.
The Thunder were dealt some bad news after their second-round win over the Los Angeles Clippers. Forward Serge Ibaka, one of the best individual defenders in the league, will likely miss the rest of the playoffs with a calf injury. That’s a big blow to the team’s rotation because San Antonio’s size will likely force both Kendrick Perkins and Steven Adams to play together. Both bigs tend to pick up fouls pretty quickly, which could shrink the Oklahoma City lineup and give San Antonio a decisive edge up front.
When Durant and Westbrook get going, there’s not much else like it in the league. When Thunder coach Scott Brooks starts having to make decisions, there’s also not much else like it in the league. That’s why San Antonio moves on for a Finals rematch with Miami. Popovich vs. Brooks isn’t a fair fight and the Thunder without Ibaka won’t be able to overcome their coach like they did against the Clippers.
Prediction: Spurs in 7.
