Super Bowl matchup to be settled today

A mere four teams remain in the quest to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Dallas. Not among them are the AFC’s top-seeded New England Patriots or the NFC’s No. 1 Atlanta Falcons, but still in the mix are the two No. 6 seeds.

A pair of close games seem imminent as both games will be rematches from the regular season, one of them a bitter rivalry that dates back decades.

NFC Championship Game

10 a.m., FOX

The day’s opener features one team that was expected to be in this position and one that few have known what to make of all season. Ironically, it is the sixth seed that was projected to be a Super Bowl contender.

The Packers earned plenty of pre-season praise, and deservedly so. They were an underachieving team last year and had a heap of talent on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers appeared poised to make the leap into the upper echelon of elite signal callers and a flood of playmakers on defense gave Green Bay plenty of ways to win games.

The Bears were not in the same discussions. Though they brought in the top free agent on the market in defensive end Julius Peppers, they were pegged as a slightly above average team that could sneak into the postseason if everything fell into place.

Now these two franchises, whose fans are some of the most loyal to their own and hated by the others, will go at one another with a conference title on the line.

Green Bay has been the talk of the playoffs as Rodgers has continued to play at a level few have eclipsed in some time. His crew of targets feature Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordie Nelson, all of whom are capable of making big plays.

Running back James Starks has emerged as a solid option for Green Bay, after having virtually no run game all season long. Starter Ryan Grant was lost for the season in Week 1 and Brandon Jackson gave a number of uninspired performances when given the opportunities.

The Bears completely dominated the Seahawks last week, before easing up in the second half and allowing a number of garbage touchdowns. Quarterback Jay Cutler gave one of the strongest performances of his career in what was his biggest game to this point. He will now have to up that level of clutch performance against a Green Bay defense that gives up just 15.0 points per game.

Cutler was spectacular as both a thrower and runner, taking a page out of the Aaron Rodgers playbook and running in two red-zone touchdowns, along with two through the air.

The Bears possess a far better defense than Rodgers was able to exploit last week in Atlanta, with Peppers up front, linebacker Brian Urlacher and cornerback Charles Tillman to contend with.

They also have far superior special teams. Punt returner Devin Hester is one of the all-time greats and the Packers have given up big returns in the kicking game all season. They also have one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history in Robbie Gould, who is used to the Soldier Field conditions.

In the team’s two regular-season meetings, the Bears won the first 20-17 at home in Week 3, while the Packers took the second, 10-3 in a must-win game during Week 17.

So much hype has surrounded Green Bay that these two games seem to be getting lost in the conversation. The Bears beat a Packer team that was mostly healthy in Week 3, before the defense was torn apart by injuries.

Then in the final game of the season, one that meant nothing to the Bears’ playoff positioning and was an elimination game for the Packers, Green Bay could only put up 10 points and had to stop a last-minute drive to move on.

Many of the logical reasons appear to favor the Packers, as evidenced by them being a road favorite by more than a field goal. But it seems head coach Lovie Smith and the Bears are comfortable with this matchup and could continue to prove many of the naysayers wrong.

THE PICK:

1:30 p.m., CBS

Both participants in the AFC title game pulled off what looked like highly improbable victories last weekend. Pittsburgh trailed 21-7 at halftime to the Baltimore Ravens and converted a 3rd and 19 pass for 58 yards in the final minute to set up the game-winning touchdown. New York was a huge underdog to the Patriots on the road, having lost 45-3 this season in New England, but dominated the Pats for a 28-21 win.

Now they each sit 60 minutes from the Super Bowl.

The Steelers will typically go as far as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will take them. He is putting together a career that is becoming more and more historic by the week. He has a regular season record of 60-26 and is now 9-2 in the playoffs.

Despite having to sit the first four weeks of this season for his personal conduct off the field, Roethlisberger threw for 3,200 yards, 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions.

Despite being a huge target in the pocket, defenders have extreme difficulty getting to him and then getting him on the ground. Many of the Steelers’ big plays come from Roethlisberger extending the action with his elusive nature.

The Jets are typically a heavy blitzing team, but have cut back on much of that the past two weeks. It has been successful against both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

Roethlisberger holds a 5-3 career record against Rex Ryan defenses, so he is familiar with his typical approach. The question is whether the Jets will be back to their relentless look or will remain focused on coverage.

New York’s quarterback, Mark Sanchez, has been a puzzle much of his two years in the NFL. He can look very sharp and make important throws, but can also have extended periods where the ball seems to find anything but his receiver’s hands.

One constant has been that Sanchez has played well when the lights shine brightest, now with a 4-1 record in the playoffs — all of those played on the road.

This Steelers team has a historically good rush defense, so big yards from running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene may not be in the cards. Sanchez could be forced to make the decisive plays for his offense.

New York receivers Santonio Holmes (facing his former team), Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery are good enough to win their matchups with the Steelers secondary, while the Jets’ Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie have been phenomenal and should give the Steelers’ young crop of receivers fits.

The Jets have had their eyes set on the Super Bowl ever since the first camera began to roll on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” series and will not be in any sort of honeymoon period following the huge upset over the Pats.

Pittsburgh is down to the end of its bench in order to just put a healthy offensive line on the field and had to expend such energy, both mentally and physically, to overcome the Ravens last week. I’m having a difficult time imagining how it will be able to turn around and handle a team as hungry and physical as the Jets one week later.

New York got the best of Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in December and will not be intimidated playing on the road for the third  straight week. Things seem to be falling into

place for the Jets to crash the new

Cowboys Stadium in two weeks.

THE PICK:

Playoff picks record: 4-4