LIHU‘E — Coming off of last week’s wild-card slate, four main themes — one from each game — developed quite clearly that could provide insight into this week’s divisional round matchups. No. 1: The New York Jets do two things
LIHU‘E — Coming off of last week’s wild-card slate, four main themes — one from each game — developed quite clearly that could provide insight into this week’s divisional round matchups.
No. 1: The New York Jets do two things (run the ball, defend the pass) exceptionally well and quarterback Mark Sanchez just might be capable of making a few plays in important spots.
No. 2: Kurt Warner’s video game-like precision against the Packers, along with the fact that the Cardinals could play in domes the next two weeks, makes another Arizona Super Bowl push much more of a possibility than it appeared to be two weeks ago.
No. 3: The Baltimore Ravens actually remember how to put a team away. After constantly blowing close games all season, Baltimore knocked down the New England Patriots from the game’s first play and never allowed them off the mat.
No. 4: The Dallas Cowboys look really, really good when they play the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s hard to take away much more after that game, since it seems that Dallas just has Philadelphia’s number. But Tony Romo sure has this Cowboy offense rolling.
The four winning teams all looked fantastic, with the exception of Arizona’s defense. That unit would have struggled to stop Mr. Rogers, let alone Aaron Rodgers. But for the most part, each winner made a strong case for not only its playoff inclusion, but its chances to continue winning.
Having said that, some of the enthusiasm over these teams should be curbed.
The four teams waiting for their arrival — the San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings — were the clear top four teams for 90 percent of the regular season. They received a bye for a reason.
While the four wild-card winners all looked strong, this week is a different test and a short memory is dangerous when evaluating the NFL.
New York Jets (+7)
at San Diego Chargers
The Jets’ good luck continues as they get the much better matchup for them against San Diego. Had they been sent to Indianapolis this week, the Colts would be geared up to show the Jets what their real team looks like, after resting most of their starters in New York’s 29-15 Week 16 win.
The Chargers are a pass-first team that had the league’s worst rush average. Whether that is due to LaDainian Tomlinson’s decline or just a shift in the offensive approach, the bottom line is this team relied on the passing game to put up huge numbers all season. Quarterback Philip Rivers was terrific and wide receiver Vincent Jackson and tight end Antonio Gates are elite players at their positions.
New York will hope to clamp down on that strong aerial attack using the league’s best cover cornerback, Darrelle Revis, to take away Jackson. The Jets use numerous blitzes to confuse quarterbacks, but that scheme could leave the middle of the field wide open and Gates in single-coverage.
The Jets’ offensive line may be the league’s best and running backs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene reap the benefits. But at some point in this game, Sanchez will have to lead his team down the field. He still hasn’t proven his ability to complete those drives in big spots.
THE PICK:
San Diego wins a tight one with Gates having a monster game; CHARGERS 23, JETS 17.
Baltimore Ravens (+6.5)
at Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore has proven it can play with anyone throughout the season and completely outclassed New England last week.
However, the Colts are a much different opponent. There are no x-factor injuries (i.e. Wes Welker, Tom Brady, Randy Moss) to play major roles in this one and Peyton Manning, coming off his fourth MVP season, is simply the best quarterback in the game.
Manning’s greatest strength is his ability to evaluate matchups. The team’s best receiver is clearly Reggie Wayne, but if Manning feels another receiver has a greater edge on a certain defender, he will continue to exploit that weakness.
While Baltimore’s defense has played much better over the last two months and looked like its old self last week, the fact is that the cornerbacks are not elite players and the linebackers don’t cover particularly well.
The Ravens defend the run well, but the Colts don’t run very effectively.
Offensively, Baltimore pounded the ball on the ground last week with the duo of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. That will likely be the plan of attack once again, since the Colts feature the league’s best pass-rush duo in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Those two will look to feast on Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco every chance they get.
Baltimore won’t give them many chances and a close game should be the result.
THE PICK:
The Ravens are no stranger to close games, but have not fared well in them. They will again keep it tight, but in the end, Manning will lead a decisive drive;
COLTS 26, RAVENS 24.
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5)
at Minnesota Vikings
Throttling the Eagles gives the Cowboys some credibility, but again, we really don’t have any idea how good this team is.
They are playing the best of any team in the league at the moment, while Romo has been spectacular for two straight months.
The Vikings are not the team they were through the first two months of the season, with a major factor being the diminished production of AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, Percy Harvin. Harvin scored eight touchdowns this season, but none in the final four games, one of which he sat out for migraines. That has been an issue for the speedy receiver and return man all season.
Running back Adrian Peterson is a physical monster, who has game-changing talent. The Cowboys have not faced a running back of his caliber all season, but the Dallas defense has played so well of late that the front seven must be feeling extremely confident.
Defensively, the Vikings are solid against the run but susceptible to the pass. Romo will rely on receiver Miles Austin and tight end Jason Witten to get free in the secondary.
They will, giving Dallas an early lead that should force Brett Favre into comeback mode. At this time of the year, that can be a dangerous prospect for Minnesota.
THE PICK:
Dallas continues rolling early and forces Favre into multiple turnovers on its way to a surprisingly one-sided road win;
COWBOYS 33, VIKINGS 16.
Arizona Cardinals (+7)
at New Orleans Saints
Of all the games this week, this one has the largest spectrum of possibilities. The Cardinals could carry over their momentum and score two early touchdowns, putting the Saints in panic mode and silencing the SuperDome crowd.
Or, the Saints could come out looking like the team that started 13-0, march down the field three straight times and force Kurt Warner into the turnover-prone quarterback he can sometimes be.
Or the two offenses could score touchdown after touchdown, leading to both defensive coordinators deciding their services are unnecessary as they spend the final two quarters in lounge chairs, sipping pina coladas.
The final scenario may be the most likely. A rested Saints squad could be back at full strength and head coach Sean Payton knows how to gameplan as well as any coach in the league.
The Saints made an inspirational move Friday, signing running back Deuce McAllister, the franchise’s all-time leading rusher, and naming him an honorary captain. Though he won’t play, he will be announced to the crowd and lead the team out on to the field.
New Orleans has terrific fans and such a scene will only increase their emotional outpouring. It will be tough for Arizona to ignore.
The Cardinals appear to be without receiver Anquan Boldin for the second straight week, but Steve Breaston and Early Doucet were outstanding in his absence against Green Bay.
THE PICK:
They go back and forth through three quarters, but the Saints pull away late as Brees bests Warner in the turnover department; SAINTS 41, CARDINALS 31.
LAST WEEK:
1-3 against the spread;
1-3 straight up
