It’s always a mix of incredible excitement and inevitable sadness. The Super Bowl has that duality of the most euphoric game of the year and the sorrow of another season’s end. It’s like a series finale of your favorite show;
It’s always a mix of incredible excitement and inevitable sadness. The Super Bowl has that duality of the most euphoric game of the year and the sorrow of another season’s end. It’s like a series finale of your favorite show; the anticipation has been wonderful, but you’re also sad to see it go.
Back in August, I made some predictions for how the 2013 season would unfold. I wrote about how the Jets and Raiders would be the league’s worst teams. The Raiders (4-12) held up their end, while the Jets somehow finished at 8-8. The Texans (2-14), Redskins (3-13) and Falcons (4-12) were all surprisingly awful, especially Houston, who I predicted would face Denver for the AFC Championship. I said the Chiefs and Saints would each go from losing records to the playoffs, which did come to fruition, along with my Super Bowl pick of Broncos-Seahawks. Despite this season’s craziness, we’re ending with the matchup we’ve all been hoping for (besides 49er fans).
So I got a few things right over the summer, but I’ve gotten almost nothing right since the playoffs began. If you’ve been betting against my terrible picks, shoot me an email and we can discuss how I can obtain my 10 percent commission. While my prognostications have been foggy at best, I am feeling a clear point of view for what to expect Sunday.
The Denver Broncos come in after one of the best offensive years in league history, directed brilliantly by Peyton Manning’s finest passing season of his storied career. The receiving corps of Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, tight end Julius Thomas and running backs Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball have all had monster performances throughout the season. Defenses struggle to maintain any sort of containment because Manning is so capable of finding the mismatch on any given play. He doesn’t mind throwing 12 times to a player who may have seen just two targets the previous week. Manning trusts his personnel, trusts his preparation and trusts his intuition.
Go ahead, blanket Demaryius with double-coverage.
Peyton won’t be bothered. He’ll simply give Decker a career afternoon or keep checking down to Moreno out of the backfield. Denver is so comfortable offensively that trying to stop their downfield march sometimes feels like a futile effort.
So why am I hesitant to give the Broncos my vote of confidence? Well they just so happen to be going against the best defense in the NFL on what should be a cold New Jersey evening. Four times in league history, the top-scoring offense and the top-scoring defense have clashed in the Super Bowl. The defense has prevailed in three of those meetings.
While Seattle has had some issues moving the ball and hasn’t played its best football through much of the postseason, we’ve seen time and time again that defense does win championships. Led by the league’s best cornerback – Richard Sherman – and the league’s best safety – Earl Thomas – the Seahawks have the secondary to rattle Manning’s talented targets. Seattle will surely be the most physical of any defensive unit the Broncos have faced all season and may get more pressure on Manning than he’s undertaken since donning a Denver uniform.
Lots of teams play the Broncos defensively. That is to say they don’t stand toe to toe with them. They try to limit the damage by bending but not breaking. More often than not, it hasn’t worked.
Seattle won’t take that approach. The Seahawks will challenge the Broncos to make plays and let Denver know from the start that it will be in for a rough afternoon. Denver wants this game to be a chess match, while Seattle will be looking for a street fight.
No team wants to get off to a bad start, but the first quarter will likely give us a great idea of where Sunday’s game is headed. If Denver is able to move the ball efficiently and effectively from the get go, then Seattle may lose some of its confidence and swagger. Despite their great second half against San Francisco, the Seahawks are a much better frontrunner than comeback team. If the Broncos can jump to an early advantage, it may be tough for Seattle to keep pace.
I think Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson will make plays, running back Marshawn Lynch will have an adequate game and wide receiver Percy Harvin will have a much larger impact than some anticipate. Seattle will score points, but the defense must keep Denver uncomfortable to have a chance.
I think they will. This isn’t an indictment of Manning but he, like just about every other quarterback in the game, has trouble dealing with constant pressure. Seattle is hungry, enters with a chip on its shoulder and will make things extremely uncomfortable for the Broncos. In what should be a very entertaining game and a great way to cap a great season, I like the Seahawks to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
The Pick: Seahawks 27, Broncos 23
