Da BIG TGI Super Bowl preview
Super Bowl Sunday. Let’s all say that together: Super Bowl Sunday.
Super Bowl Sunday.
Let’s all say that together:
Super Bowl Sunday.
It just gives you a warm and tingly feeling to utter those three words, right?
No matter whether you look forward to the pupus more than the pass protections, the commercials more than the coverages, the halftime more than the halfbacks, nearly everyone gets a shiver up their spine when they think about it…
Super Bowl Sunday.
Well it is actually upon us, as today the Indianapolis Colts will battle the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV.
Both teams have been sitting atop their respective conferences since the opening week of the season and, fittingly, will now face off to determine who will be putting the Vince Lombardi Trophy into the overhead compartment on its team flight out of Miami.
Each came into the postseason as the No. 1 seed and each met some strong resistance in the conference championship game, but overcame that adversity to claim a spot in the year’s biggest sporting event.
The Colts opened at the beginning of last week as a 4-point favorite, which seemed about right to me. That line went up quickly as the public jumped all over Indianapolis, likely based on Peyton Manning’s performance against the Jets and the Saints’ lucky/advantageous finish against Brett Favre and the Vikings.
It was in the 6 to 6.5 range by the weekend, but has since dropped. News about Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney’s injured ankle made his availability and effectiveness questionable, leading to plenty of money coming in on the Saints. Freeney really is that good.
The line is now back to 5, which I still believe to be too high, but it at least makes more sense. A team usually gets three points for home-field advantage, so this line assumes that the Colts would be an 8-point favorite over the Saints in Indianapolis. I have my doubts, but that’s where it has settled.
Colts offense vs. Saints defense
Manning is the man who makes this offense work. His value was evident in the final two weeks when the team put backup Curtis Painter under center for much of each contest — both losses.
Manning is basically the offensive coordinator. He calls the plays, audibles at the line, directs the offensive line protection, moves his receivers and exploits any and all weak defenders.
I’d say he should collect an additional coordinator salary, but Manning signed a $99.2 million deal in 2004 and will be getting another extension very soon. He’s doing just fine.
To say he’s worth every penny is probably as ridiculous as it is true. He won his NFL-record fourth MVP award this season while throwing for 4,500 yards, 33 touchdowns and going undefeated (sort of).
His performance today will not be the key to the game, because his production is already expected. Anything other than a stellar game with clutch, on-the-money targets would be a shock.
What Manning does so remarkably well is what makes the Saints the underdog. He analyzes defenses and picks them apart with such ease that no gimmick or plan of attack seems to negatively affect him.
The AFC title game could be the exact blueprint for how today’s game plays out.
The New York Jets are a heavy blitzing team, throwing all sorts of zone blitzes at a quarterback and making him react quickly and, oftentimes, incorrectly.
Manning took a few series to adjust to that type of pressure, then seemed to flip the switch. It was almost tangible. He figured it out, allowed the Jets to keep doing what they were doing and ultimately picked them apart. He used the Jets’ aggression against them and found mismatches on just about every play.
The Saints are a very heavy blitzing team, a defense that tries to mask its deficiencies against the run by applying pressure and forcing turnovers. They come from different spots to confuse the passer into making mistakes.
Manning showed last time out that his mistakes are few and far between.
The Saints have a very solid secondary, but no team can withstand Manning’s wrath for very long.
However, New Orleans has a better chance at keeping him to human levels than some folks will give it credit for. Most thought the Arizona Cardinals, coming off a 51-point performance in the previous week against the Green Bay Packers, would light it up through the air in the divisional round against the Saints.
They ended up with just 14 points.
That Cardinals offense is very similar to the Colts, in that neither runs the ball effectively, nor do they really try to force it on the ground. The Colts ranked just 22nd in the league in rush offense, according to Football Outsiders. Conversely, they were sixth in pass offense.
Those figures don’t play into what typically hurts the Saints, who rank as the fourth-worst team in the NFL against the run, but ninth-best against the pass.
Colts running backs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown haven’t shown much to think they will exploit the Saints’ weakness against the run, which is super soft up the middle. Addai will likely be the one in the backfield for more of the game, as he is a better pass protector than the rookie Brown. That will be a necessary skill against the Saints’ front seven, which constantly got to Favre in the NFC title game.
While they don’t have anyone exactly like the Jets’ Darrelle Revis to spy on Colts receiver Reggie Wayne all day, Saints cornerback Jabari Greer was one of the five best corners in the league this season.
Again, Manning is the master of taking what the defense gives him and making lesser players better. Case in point: Pierre Garcon’s AFC Championship game performance (11 catches, 151 yards, one TD) and the production all season from Garcon and Austin Collie.
He will probably avoid Greer, forcing the rest of the New Orleans secondary into cover situations.
Saints offense vs. Colts defense
Alright, enough Manning love for now. It’s time to answer another question: Who dat gonna stop dem Saints?
Quarterback Drew Brees isn’t necessarily a household name just yet, but he has become the face of the Saints and the plethora of weapons he possesses in the passing game leads people to believe New Orleans is just a passing team.
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
In the postseason, we’ve seen some great running teams like the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets, but the offense that finished the season as Football Outsiders’ No. 1 ranked running team?
Who dat? Really?
Yup. The Saints possess the highest-rated rushing attack this season, with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush leading the way.
That’s not to say their passing offense is overrated; it ranked fifth in the league.
Thomas, Bell and Bush combined to rush for 1,837 yards and 16 touchdowns, while picking up 4.7 yards per carry.
This tough trio could prove to be the silent killer against the Colts, who ranked 20th in the league against the run.
Bush is also a key part of the Saints’ high-powered passing game that Brees directs flawlessly. He caught 47 balls this season, one of seven Saints to catch at least 35 passes.
Brees finished the season with 4,388 pass yards and 34 touchdowns. He had a QB rating of 109.6.
I know the QB rating is a stat nobody can really figure out, but trust me, that’s good.
How good? Good enough for the seventh-best season in NFL history. That good.
Brees is perhaps the most accurate passer in the league and uses all his receivers, similarly to Manning. Marques Colston had the most receptions for New Orleans with 70, not a huge number.
Devery Henderson, tight end Jeremy Shockey and Robert Meacham had 51, 48 and 45 catches, respectively.
Colston and Meacham are the end-zone targets, each hauling in nine TDs.
Political metaphors aside, this concept of “spreading the wealth” has been remarkably successful for the Saints and is the brainchild of head coach Sean Payton.
Payton is a master gameplanner who uses tons of pre-snap motion to create mismatches.
This is where the health of Freeney really comes into play. His ability to get to the quarterback almost always forces offenses to leave someone in to block, limiting the number of receivers they can have in a pattern.
If he is unable to go, or isn’t at full-speed, Payton can use his full arsenal of offensive weapons at will without worrying much about Brees getting flattened.
The Colts rely on their front four to get pressure, while blitzing less than almost anyone in the league. This season, they sent five pass rushers on just 24 percent of their plays, which was fourth-lowest in the league.
They sent six pass rushers a measly 4 percent of the time, second-to-last in the league.
If they are now forced to bring blitzes to get pressure on Brees, those mismatches will appear in bunches.
What’s it all mean?
Now that I’ve made a solid case for both teams and probably got you to change your mind 3-4 times since the beginning of the article (don’t worry, I’ve changed my opinion 12-15 times since I started writing it), it’s actually time to make a pick.
According to the numbers, the Saints actually appear to have the edge. They are a much better running team, are basically even in passing offense and have a better pass defense than the Colts.
So why in the world did the Colts rise to almost a full touchdown favorite before some injury news knocked the line back down?
Because the one thing unifying everyone in this game is this:
Right now, in 2010, there is really no sicker feeling you can have during an NFL game than being the person who picked against Peyton Manning.
He has become that much of a difference maker.
You can scour the internet to come up with every statistical reason why the Colts should lose the game, have your mind fixated on how the opposing defense will limit Peyton’s production this week, then see No. 18 trotting out on to the field and realize you’re an absolute idiot.
It happened to me in Week 12. With the Colts sitting at 10-0, I decided that the Houston Texans would be the team to stop Indy that week.
All the matchups seemed to make sense, the way each team was playing at the time allowed me to make a great case for Houston to pull the home upset.
I told everyone I knew that this would be the week the Colts fell. I sat and watched the game and saw the Texans race out to a 17-0 lead, then still leading 20-14 at the end of the third quarter.
When I should have been feeling smart and preparing all my “I told you so” emails, I was just sinking in my seat.
Watching the game with my friend, I turned to him and said “I’ll take the Colts minus seven, right now.”
Down by six with 15 minutes to play and I was prepared to bet on the Colts winning by more than a touchdown.
Why?
Because when Peyton Manning needs to score, the Colts are going to score. Simple as that.
What happened? Well, the Colts scored three straight touchdowns and ended up winning the game 35-27.
To quote former President George W. Bush: “Fool me once, shame on… shame on you… fool me, you can’t get fooled again.”
With those sage words in mind, here it is:
Da Pick
In a well-played and exciting game, the Saints will hold a 27-21 lead in the fourth quarter before seeing Manning do what he does; COLTS 28, SAINTS 27.
Enjoy the game…
