Forecasters with NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Climate Prediction Center have announced a 30 percent chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the upcoming central Pacific Hurricane Season. The 2025 outlook also indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season and a 20 percent chance that it will be above-normal.
In terms of storm numbers, the forecast calls for one to four tropical cyclones across the Central Pacific, which is located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. A near-normal season has four or five tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.
The outlook is a guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific basin and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii.
The Central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
“Even though this season is predicted to be less active, now is the time for residents and businesses to prepare for hurricane season,” said Chris Brenchley, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center director.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center uses satellites, land-and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions, all operated by NOAA and its partners, to monitor tropical cyclone activity. These observations are then fed into a variety of NOAA computer models that run on state-of-the-art supercomputers. This information is then used by forecasters to develop storm track and intensity forecasts and provide impact-based decision support services to emergency managers at the county, state and federal levels.
Forecast and communication improvements this season
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center are extending forecasts a day earlier on the sustained hurricane-force wind field (74 miles per hour) from 48 to 72 hours.
New this year, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center will be able to issue potential tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare. Storm surge is the water pushed onto shore by the winds swirling around a hurricane.
Beginning this year, the National Weather Service will provide storm surge flooding forecasts for the main Hawaiian Islands (Kauai County, Oahu, Maui County and Hawaii County) so that county emergency managers can better warn coastal residents and businesses.
NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service will offer a new tool that uses satellite observations to help better predict tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. The tool is now available for both the Atlantic and Central Pacific basins.
Hawaii’s readiness for tropical weather
Hawaii is a NWS StormReady state, one of only eight states in the nation. Participation in the StormReady program helps to make communities ready, responsive and resilient to weather hazards when they strike. Each county, community and government in Hawaii — from the Big Island to Kauai — has worked to enhance their readiness for the multitude of hazardous weather that can strike the state.
Check for watches and warnings on the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s website throughout the season, and visit FEMA’s Ready.gov for additional hurricane preparedness tips.
