Put science ahead of polling numbers

Mayor Kawakami’s latest Emergency Rule 19 is incomplete and unscientific because it wasn’t thought through. His intention is to be able to go from Tier 1 up through Tier 4 as the virus escalates. In theory this is a good plan, but the virus does not follow a pattern. Kawakami talks about consistency and then proposes a rule that reeks of inconsistency because the rule has to be re-evaluated every day. How is anyone supposed to book flights or lodging based on a rule that can change daily?

Suppose in a two week period, there are no new cases for five days, 8 cases on the sixth day, and no new cases thereafter. Based on the rule, the quarantine would be imposed only on days 7 through 13 and abandoned on day 14 because there had been no new cases in the last seven days. If a visitor lands on day 7 does he get a 14 day or 7 day quarantine? How do you communicate the change in policy quickly and efficiently?

Or suppose there are less than 2 cases in a week, then on day 8 there is another 2 cases, then it drops down to 1 new case on days eleven and 14. Under that scenario, businesses would have to close down a little on day 8 but get to re-open on day 15. How can a business operate like that?

Here are the sad truths. It looks like about 3% of the general population is going to get COVID, SOONER OR LATER. The states that had few cases early are now having more cases. Of those infected, about 3% die. So sooner or later, about 2100 Kaua‘i residents will get the virus and about 63 will die. Every death is a tragedy but that is the reality. However, to put it into perspective, the national infection rate for the Swine Flu in 2009 was approximately 20% of the population (probably 15,000 got it on Kaua‘i) and the Obama administration was lucky that the death rate was much less than 3% because that administration did almost nothing to fight the virus. Not fighting this virus may be the best option (I know that sounds strange but keep reading).

The WHO now denounces lockdowns because the lockdowns themselves are contributing to increased suicides, contributing to child and spousal abuse, and have doubled the world’s poverty rate in the last seven months. People in lockdown are not getting screened for more serious problems like cancer and heart disease, so the death rate from these diseases is higher. Sweden, which has no lockdowns, no mask laws, and no social distancing has a lower cases/100,000 than almost any other European country.

I urge Mayor Kawakami to put science ahead of his polling numbers and open Kauai without Emergency Rule 19.

•••

Smedley Aberdeen is a resident of Scottsdale, Arizona.

11 Comments
  1. Kauai Resident October 15, 2020 6:37 am Reply

    We have all had to put up with the inconvenience of this disease. All summer long college students had to shift their plans daily, watching campus policies delay move in dates, and push back their start date to a point where students didn’t know when or if they would be able to get an education. We watched from Kauai as cases on Oahu blossomed and mainland states put Hawaii on a 14 day quarantine list and students had to scramble to find somewhere on the mainland to spend 14 days in quarantine and then hope they made it to campus for the start of the semester for their EDUCATION. Kauai youth took on that stress due to Oahu’s covid cases, not Kauai’s, all for an EDUCATION. Boo hoo Mr. Aberdeen. Please don’t come and visit as you might become inconvenienced for YOUR VACATION.


  2. Kauaidoug October 15, 2020 8:48 am Reply

    I just want to know if the people advocating herd immunity will volunteer to be the lead sheep to get the virus. Now if you get the virus are you only going to infect the person next in line or at home. Will you promise to not take a hospital bed from someone who has followed the public health recommendations?
    Somehow I don’t thinks so, you might, but when you start getting sick I have a feeling you’ll be heading to the hospital just like anyone else. I would say let the herd immunity people have their way but they might take a bed from me or someone I love!


  3. Paulo October 15, 2020 9:23 am Reply

    Mr Aberdeen uses Sweden as an example of doing fine without lockdowns with this statement, “Sweden, which has no lockdowns, no mask laws, and no social distancing has lower cases/100,000 than almost any other European country.”

    If you look at the death rate per 1 million persons, Sweden’s is 580.4.

    Many other European countries come in with far less COVID deaths per capita and some of them include France, Netherlands, Switzerland, Finland , Norway, Iceland and Ireland.

    I prefer to look at countries doing far better than Sweden, some of which are not in Europe, there is Australia, Japan and of course the premier lockdown country is New Zealand currently with no cases.


    1. Smedley Aberdeen October 15, 2020 4:55 pm Reply

      Thank you for supporting my argument. 580 deaths per million computes to 40 deaths on Kauai, which is much less than the 650/million experienced throughout the US.


      1. Ikashibi October 17, 2020 8:42 pm Reply

        And yet another simplistic ideological comment. Smedley knows the cost of everything, but not the value.


  4. Ikashibi October 15, 2020 11:36 am Reply

    Another opinion based “scientific” article in TGI. Perhaps a little fact checking by this newspaper would be helpful, as we are the country with the worst Sars Cov 2 statistics. TGI should show some responsibility. Aloha


  5. LTEreader October 15, 2020 1:30 pm Reply

    Smedley Aberdeen: “The WHO now denounces lockdowns”

    Seriously? Another one that doesn’t take the time to research FACTS, but is OK with spreading reckless lies from Trumps Twitter posts. Surely you should know better by now. You have the world at your fingertips, chock full of FACTS = get some.

    “WASHINGTON — The Verify team exists to bring you the facts because we know it’s not always easy to know what’s real on social media. One of those clarifications comes from a recent tweet by President Trump, who claimed that the World Health Organization switched their stance on current lockdown measures.”

    TRUMP TWEETS:
    “The World Health Organization just admitted that I was right. Lockdowns are killing countries all over the world,” reads an Oct. 12 tweet.
    A second tweet reads in part: “WHO no longer likes lockdowns, just came out against.”

    QUESTION: “Did the World Health Organization reverse its stance on lockdowns?

    ANSWER: “Our position on lockdowns and other severe movement restrictions has been consistent since the beginning, We recognize that they [lockdowns] are costly to societies, economies and individuals, but may need to be used if COVID-19 transmission is out of control. In case they are used, it should be as a last resort.”


  6. Mike Dennis October 15, 2020 3:16 pm Reply

    Hey Smedley, maybe keep your opinion to yourself and let us folks on Kauai figure this out ok. Your ‘science’ is obviously influenced by herd immunity. To claim that Sweden did such a great job is not accurate. We are not perfect here, but we are clean.


    1. Smedley Aberdeen October 15, 2020 5:03 pm Reply

      Dr David Nabarro, the WHO’s Special Envoy on Covid-19, tells Andrew Neil: ‘We really do appeal to all world leaders: stop using lockdown as your primary control method’.


    2. Smedley Aberdeen October 15, 2020 5:08 pm Reply

      Mike, as Americans we all entitled to voice our opinions, and none of us is entitled to tell anyone else to “keep your opinions to yourself”.


  7. Lawaibob October 16, 2020 8:13 am Reply

    Keep your opinion and your butts in Arizona


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