LIHUE — Ocean temperatures could have more sway over sea level rise than air temperatures, according to new research on The Greenland Ice Sheet, which scientists say will contribute greatly to sea level rise over the coming centuries.
“This information can be fed into large scale ice sheet models that are used to predict sea level rise,” said Tom Cowton, of the school of Geography and Sustainable Development at the University of St. Andrews, who led the study.
Glacier retreat is just one factor in sea level rise, according to the University of Hawaii School of Ocean and Earth Science Technology.
SOEST scientists say global sea level rise is the product of two main things — melting ice on Antarctica, Greenland and from alpine glaciers and the thermal expansion of seawater due to surface warming.
The new University of St. Andrews research comes on the heels of an April announcement that research has begun at the Thwaites Glacier in the Antarctic ice-sheet and whether the collapse of the Antarctic glacier could raise global sea levels even higher than current predictions by the end of the century.
“The glacier has been thinning and speeding up due to increased melting beneath its floating tongue. Our concern is that breakup of the ice tongue could greatly accelerate the rate of ice loss in the near future, with a big impact on sea level,” said study lead Doug Benn, professor of Environmental Change at St. Andrews in April.
Predictions in Hawaii are that the sea level will rise 3.2 feet by the year 2100 and recent projections suggest that magnitude could be reached as early as the year 2060, according to the state’s Hawaii Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report.
Counties across the state have started taking steps to educate the public and working on mitigation strategies, like the July 16 mayoral directive for Honolulu City and County to take steps to prepare for sea level rise and Kauai’s Aloha+Challenge, which inspires community members to make choices that lower carbon footprints and increase sustainability.
“In our Sea Level Rise Adaptation Recommendations section of last year’s report to the Hawaii State Legislature we emphasized that county governments should be planning for wave overwash, groundwater inundation, erosion, and drainage backflow resulting from an acceleration in sea level rise of 3.2 feet by mid-century,” said Suzanne Case, Department of Land and Natural Resources chair.
She pointed out research shows a potential for as much as six feet of sea level rise in later decades of this century and beyond.
The goal for the research ongoing in Greenland is to help bring accurate sea level rise forecasts and to better predict climate change. Predicting how quickly the ice sheet will shrink is difficult due to “poor understanding of the rapid changes where the ice sheet meets the ocean,” according to the University of St. Andrews.
The study examined the behavior of 10 large glaciers in east Greenland over a 20-year period using satellite imagery to track their retreat.
The research, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found variations in ocean temperature had an impact on glacier melting rates.
“While we cannot predict the detailed retreat of individual glaciers, our findings enable us to approximate likely retreat rates based on air and ocean warming scenarios,” Cowton said.
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Jessica Else, environment reporter, can be reached at 245-0452 or at jelse@thegardenisland.com.
Aloha Kakou,
Sea Level Rise, well, there’s 2 ways to look at this.
With Optimism or Pessimism
You see during a 100 story skyscraper fire Optim and Pessim had to jump from the top.
“Flying” down, Pessim complained the whole way down, but as they passed the 13th floor, Optim looked sideways at Pessim and said, “13th floor, so far so good…!”.
The moral of the story is one of the most famous and visited cities in the world is Venice, Italy, known for its beautiful canals and gondolas and 1 James Bond 007 movie.
Luckily and optimistically, with Kauai’s 4 story height limit, every building on island at or near the shore line will be able to be raised up ahead of SEA LEVEL RISE. IT AIN’t Free, but it’s doable.
Optimistically speaking, think of the Great Chinese Wall, the TRUMP WALL on our Southern Border, Neil Amstrong landed on the Moon, modern NON-SciFi videos of Mars. Kaua’i the Venice of the Pacific with góndolas and Hawaiian canoes to get you to your condo and shopping. It’s doable…!
No more Traffic problems as motor taxis zig and zag the canals and former Kuhio Highway to be called the Kuhio Waterway.
Fishing from your condo lanai for your dinner BBQ, floating melodious Kaua’i-achi bands serenading visitors and locals alike with traditional Hawaiian Music.
Occasional 4 footers peeling off in the Kapa’a Soccer Park.
Instead of Pedaling the Path, you’ll be Paddleing the Path.
Tranquility will embrace Kaua’i with its tranquil inshore waters.
You’ll be able to see tropical fish swimming in and out of submerged old abandoned cars and bicycles here and there, a veritable aquatic museum.
Be Optimistic, 2060 is all we have to wait?
Mahalo,
Charlie
Ooops forgot to mention, optimistically, that by 2060, Bernard’s Think Big, will have us an elevated Monorail circumnavigating the island, well not the Na Pali, some places do require walking and exercising.
And to keep the monorail “boats” moving briskly between towns there will be “Jump Off” places, and monorail boat slide-down boat ramps to continue your in-towns boating enjoyment.
Bliss and Happiness will literally surround the island, and while the Big Island is gaining more unsuitable land, Kaua’i will be gaining more suitable crystal clear warm tropical waters with plenty limu, lobster, and fish. Who could ask for more.? Oh, Thank You, Bernard…!
And…who needs Term Limits..
.BERNARD For Mayor…AGAIN…Think Big…!
Mahalo,
Charlie
More of the same “sky is falling” rhetoric which, of course, is based on a computer model. The problem with these models is that they hide biases and agendas…in other words, they’re designed to produce a desired result. Hardly a shining example of the scientific method.
Of course, these biased models produce the fear that allows for easier corralling of the sheep (that’s the people who lack critical thinking skills and accept what they are told).
RG DeSoto
WoW. Both of the previous commenters completely missed the point. These are exactly the sort of attitudes that landed us in this unhealthy, awful mess in the first place. Oblivious and Ignorant. Comments of this nature are dangerous. What’s the worst that will happen if we take action now to clean up the Earth? A much healthier environment for all. I, personally, would rather not find out what will happen if we continue to sit in Ignorant Bliss.