The Billabong Pipe Masters is expected to be on today after Tuesday’s lay day as the northwest swell kicks into high gear on Oahu’s North Shore. Today appears to be by far the best opportunity of the remaining waiting period
The Billabong Pipe Masters is expected to be on today after Tuesday’s lay day as the northwest swell kicks into high gear on Oahu’s North Shore. Today appears to be by far the best opportunity of the remaining waiting period and we should gain some insight into the world championship race with certain round three results.
Gabriel Medina is still alive and starts the day against Jordy Smith. There’s no longer a question about Medina’s ability in heavy waves after last year’s showing at Pipeline and he should be motivated enough to get through Smith. This would also slightly benefit Sebastian Zietz, who mainly just has to worry about his own result, although it wouldn’t hurt to have Smith out of the draw.
Bede Durbidge then takes on Keanu Asing, who has probably already secured a re-qualification spot. But Asing won’t be satisfied and should still make another heat against Durbidge, who hasn’t advanced beyond round three at Pipeline in the past four years.
Italo Ferreira against C.J. Hobgood should be a sneaky good matchup. Ferreira has had a phenomenal rookie year and could still wind up in the top five for the season. Hobgood is participating in his final Championship Tour event and already put up a perfect 10 in round one. Ferreira has a huge future ahead of him, but Hobgood wins this one for the elder statesmen.
Kelly Slater and Michel Bourez have each had disappointing seasons. Slater hasn’t been in the world title mix all year and Bourez missed a pair of events with injury and hasn’t been right since. But a bad year for Slater is a career year for most and picking against him at Pipeline isn’t wise. Slater advances.
The heat of the day should be Mick Fanning against Jamie O’Brien. Fanning remains in the driver’s seat for the world title but has drawn perhaps the best Pipeline surfer in the world. If Pipeline is firing, O’Brien will be hard to beat. But Fanning has been so resilient all season and even just in round one. It may take a major Backdoor effort or something else spectacular, but I think Fanning finds a way to get through.
John John Florence against Taj Burrow feels like a WWE match between two superstars when neither has a title. Florence just never got going this year due to injury and a slow start. Burrow has made a pair of semifinals but hasn’t been the consistent quarterfinalist we’re accustomed to seeing. John John should get through easily this time around.
Heat seven has major spoiler potential with Filipe Toledo taking on Mason Ho. It would seem that the bigger the waves, the greater chance Ho has of taking Toledo out of the world title race. He’s known as much more of a charger and has probably surfed perfect Pipe many more times than his opponent. As long as the swell doesn’t come down earlier than expected, Ho should pull out the win and end Toledo’s dream season.
I then like Kai Otton’s chances of pulling an upset against Joel Parkinson. Otton has surfed the big waves very well this year and earned a round one victory. He’ll reach round four for the first time since Tahiti.
Heat nine is a huge moment for Zietz when he takes on former Pipe Master Jeremy Flores. There is plenty of pressure on Seabass as he sweats out his re-qualification bid. His road hasn’t been easy thus far and doesn’t get any easier now. Though he did win this event in 2010, Flores has only advanced past round three once since that victory. Zietz has greater motivation this time around and has had better results recently. Seabass pulls out the win to keep his hopes alive.
Julian Wilson will then knock off Adam Melling, which also has a very small benefit to Zietz. Wilson hasn’t really gotten going yet this event but he should be happier with the bigger conditions expected today.
Josh Kerr and Ace Buchan are an interesting contrast and both were semifinalists last season at Pipe. Kerr’s results always seem to underrepresent his talent but maybe he’s ready to make a splash to end 2015. I like Kerr to move on.
The round closes with Adriano de Souza taking on Glenn Hall. This is a good matchup for de Souza compared to what Fanning and Toledo have to deal with. Unless he falls victim to his own nerves, de Souza should still be in the world title mix heading to round four.
•••
David Simon can be reached at dsimon@thegardenisland.com.
