Crawling with cyclones

LIHUE — This year, we’re breaking records.

In the midst of an El Niño year, the National Weather Service in Honolulu has tracked a total of 15 tropical cyclones this season, which is the highest number ever recorded in a season. The current storm, Olaf, was upgraded Sunday to hurricane status, making it the 15th named storm and the 11th hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

“I’ve noticed we’ve had a high number of hurricanes this year and it’s been hotter,” said Kauai resident Cameron Yoneji, 19. “None of the hurricanes have hit here, though, so that’s good.”

Yoneji said he hasn’t done anything extra to prepare for a potential hurricane this year, though, and he’s not very worried about one striking the island.

“If it gets really bad, then I’ll go out and get some extra water and supplies,” Yoneji said. “I have a little bit, but I’ll go and really stock up if I have to.”

The runner-up year for most active hurricane season was 1992, when there were 11 reported tropical cyclones. That was the year Hurricane Iniki slammed into Kauai, causing a total of around $1.8 billion in damage and taking six lives.

This year, the Hawaiian Islands have been on the alert a record number of times.

“It sure is high compared to average,” said Robert Ballard, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu. “Storms average about four or five in a season.”

Ballard said meteorologists with the National Weather Service predicted this year’s tropical storm season, which runs from June through November, to be active, but they weren’t expecting such a high number of storms.

“We forecasted a busy season early on due to the strong El Niño that was expected,” Ballard said. “I think it’s a surprise how many we’ve had.”

El Niño simply refers to the abnormal rise in equatorial water temperatures of the Central and Eastern Pacific, according to Ballard, and it provides the perfect environment for storms.

“When the ocean temperatures are above normal, like this year we’ve had very warm ocean water, that helps to create a lot of tropical cyclones,” Ballard said. “Warm water, that’s one of the primary ingredients they need to survive and thrive.”

Other factors are needed to create a hurricane, like the right type of winds, so an El Niño year doesn’t necessarily mean there will definitely be more tropical cyclones. The 1997 El Niño is an example of the phenomenon.

“Like in 1997, when you have opposing winds, or big difference in the winds from the surface (of the water) to the top of the atmosphere, that can prevent hurricanes from strengthening,” Ballard said.

When those storms do form close enough to the Hawaiian Islands, residents have to be prepared for more than just high winds and rain.

“If the center of the tropical cyclone goes close (to the islands), but tracks north, then we get the muggy conditions, intense downpours and thundershowers that can cause flash flooding,” Ballard said.

He explained that wind speeds usually weaken about 200 miles south of tropical storms, and the low airflow creates intensely muggy conditions.

“If the tropical storm goes south, we keep the trade winds and they pick up a little bit and as the system goes by the trades might increase,” Ballard said. “It gets more showery and a little more humid, but not intensely humid like we saw this year.”

While the National Weather Service isn’t “expecting any problems for the next several days” for Hawaii, the official end of hurricane season is still over a month away.

“Hurricane season ends Nov. 30, but there’s really no magic number where Mother Nature decides she’s done,” Ballard said.

It’s possible to get a hurricane after Nov. 30, Ballard said, and it could happen this year.

“If there’s a year where it happens, it would be when conditions are favorable like they have been this year,” Ballard said. “That’s a possibility this year.”