People ask me all the time, “David, when you won your March Madness pool in 2005 — which included more than 550 people — what was your method for predicting such an accurate bracket?” First I thank them for following
People ask me all the time, “David, when you won your March Madness pool in 2005 — which included more than 550 people — what was your method for predicting such an accurate bracket?”
First I thank them for following my March Madness career so closely (and remind them that I also finished third and 10th overall that same year). Then my explanation is usually that I watched a ton of college hoops and had a group of five or six teams I thought were best suited for a deep tournament run because of their personalities and how they were playing into early March. When the bracket was released, there were clear paths for four of my favorites – Illinois, North Carolina, Louisville and Michigan State – to reach the Final Four. All of them managed to do so and it got my name forever etched on whatever mythical trophy exists out there in the ether.
But enough about my amazing accomplishment.
After the 2014 bracket came out Sunday, the early talking points focused on Louisville and Michigan State being underseeded as 4-seeds. All four ESPN on-air commentators actually picked Michigan State to win the national title, while Louisville currently has the third-lowest betting odds to win it all after Florida and Michigan State. A pair of 4-seeds in the top three favorites is unusual and means the general public has a much different perception than the selection committee.
While this bracket isn’t illuminating that golden road map it did for me in 2005, I have some pretty strong opinions on how this tournament will shake out, so let’s examine each region.
SOUTH
Florida got the overall No. 1 seed and has probably the easiest road to the Final Four of any top seed, though fans of No. 2 Kansas would disagree. I wrote last week that No. 9 Pittsburgh was a team to watch and could knock off one or two top teams come tournament time. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they get Florida if they can beat No. 8 Colorado in the opener. I see mostly chalk for this region, with Florida taking on either Kansas or No. 3 Syracuse in the regional final. While I love the athleticism of Kansas and Syracuse is certainly not playing its best, the Jim Boeheim zone could frustrate the Jayhawks, who aren’t a great shooting team. I give the edge to the Orange in that game, but I think they ultimately fall to the top seed. Final Four pick: FLORIDA
EAST
ACC regular-season and tournament champ Virginia snagged the No. 1 seed in the East, and deservingly so. But that prestige quickly faded when everyone and their mother’s Facebook friends started picking No. 4 Michigan State to emerge from the region. I have a few Round of 64 upsets penciled in for the East, with No. 12 Harvard knocking off No. 5 Cincinnati and No. 11 Providence taking out No. 6 North Carolina, but that’s when the chalk takes over. I love No. 3 Iowa State and while I think No. 2 Villanova is being slightly undervalued by the general public, I think the Cyclones will dispatch the Wildcats if the pair meets in the Sweet 16. When Virginia and Michigan State tangle, I think the Spartans will be favored, but I like the Cavaliers to justify their top seed and eliminate Sparty to take on Iowa State in the regional final. Tony Bennett’s club will be making sweet music all the way to Arlington. Final Four pick: VIRGINIA
WEST
Arizona was the clear top seed for the West region, but will face a stiff challenge from No. 9 Oklahoma State in the Round of 32. While I love Marcus Smart and the Cowboys’ fight, I think the Wildcats will escape and survive to move on to the second week. I like No. 12 North Dakota State to upset No. 5 Oklahoma, but I see chalk the rest of the way with the top four seeds all reaching the Sweet 16. That’s where I think Arizona could slip up. No. 4 San Diego State is an unheralded group, but it plays stifling defense and has the athletes to match up with Arizona. I love the smarts of senior point guard Xavier Thames and I think Steve Fisher’s Aztecs eliminate the Wildcats. I like No. 2 Wisconsin and No. 3 Creighton to both survive the opening week, with the Badgers finally ending Doug McDermott’s amazing career to take on San Diego State in an intriguing regional final. The Big Ten wins out this time. Final Four pick: WISCONSIN
MIDWEST
It’s been dubbed the “region of death” and I can’t say I’ve ever seen a tougher region configured by the committee. Three of the top four seeds — No. 1 Wichita State, No. 2 Michigan and No. 4 Louisville — all reached last season’s Final Four, before we even discuss No. 3 Duke, No. 8 Kentucky or whichever dangerous 11-seed survives today’s First Four game. Upsets should be plentiful and I like today’s winner of No. 11 Iowa or Tennessee to knock off No. 6 Massachusetts, as well as No. 12 NC State to upset No. 5 St. Louis and No. 10 Arizona State to take out No. 7 Texas. While I think Wichita State really is one of the country’s best teams, I can’t avoid hopping on the now runaway train of a bandwagon that’s forecasting Louisville over the Shockers in the Sweet 16. Duke should take care of Michigan in a great second-week matchup, setting up a Pitino-Krzyzewski regional final. Can’t ask for much more than that. Final Four pick: LOUISVILLE
When it’s all said and done, I see Florida and Louisville battling it out for the national championship. While the Cardinals are as hot as anyone right now, I just think the Gators have proven to be the best team all season long. It’s title number three for Billy D. National Champion pick: FLORIDA
