Nobody likes chalk. It’s messy, it gets on your hands and clothes, it makes a terrible sound on the blackboard. People especially hate chalk in the NCAA Tournament, a term that indicates all the favorites consistently knocking off the underdogs.
Nobody likes chalk.
It’s messy, it gets on your hands and clothes, it makes a terrible sound on the blackboard.
People especially hate chalk in the NCAA Tournament, a term that indicates all the favorites consistently knocking off the underdogs. We all watch with such intensity for the potential shockers, hoping to see which school could be wearing Cinderella’s slippah.
With 16 games on tap today, there are plenty of opportunities for David to launch a buzzer-beating rock right between Goliath’s eyes.
Here are some of the most likely — or rather, least unlikely — shockers for Thursday’s slate:
Utah State (12) over Kansas State (5)
The sole representative from the WAC wins 30 games and can do no better than a 12-seed. That’s very little respect from the selection committee, but it sets up a game that may work in the Aggies’ favor.
Kansas State has had an up-and-down season, coming on strong late but was very disappointing for much of its schedule. Wildcats guard Jacob Pullen (19.5 ppg) is one of the toughest players in the country, but WAC Player of the Year Tai Wesley (14.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg) leads this Utah State team that stifles opponents defensively and is used to winning games.
Throw in its proximity to the Tucson, Ariz. site and the fact that Utah State actually finished the year ranked higher in the polls (19) than K-State (21) and there is plenty of reason to think it could be an early exit for one of the preseason favorites to win it all.
Richmond (12) over Vanderbilt (5)
The Spiders come in as Atlantic 10 conference champs and winners of their last seven games. They are still known for being giant-killers after some former teams pulled off miracles, the last being a win over No. 3 South Carolina as a 14-seed in 1998.
Vanderbilt has the opposite reputation, having lost first-round games in 2008 and 2010, each time as a 4-seed. Vandy’s susceptibility comes from its reliance on the three-point shot. At times, it can be a huge benefit when the ball finds the hoop, but it leaves them little margin for error when it doesn’t.
If wings John Jenkins (19.6 ppg) and Jeffery Taylor (14.5 ppg) aren’t feeling it, the Commodores will need center Festus Ezeli (12.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg) to step up and carry the load. Richmond seems to have the antidote for Vandy’s attack — its matchup zone has allowed opponents to shoot just 30.5 percent from downtown this season. Expect to hear the name Justin Harper (18.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg) a lot if Richmond does indeed come to play.
Bucknell (14) over UConn (3)
OK, this could be a bit of a reach, but it may just be the perfect storm for the Bison. Bucknell is no stranger to success from the 14-seed, knocking off a much more talented Kansas in 2005’s opening round. This time, it’s a UConn team that may just be the hottest squad in the country.
The Huskies just won five games in five days to win the Big East Tournament and guard Kemba Walker (23.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.3 apg) put the team on his back for an amazing week-long show. Could it be too much to ask to now come back and battle with a deliberate, grind-it-out Bucknell team?
The Bison like to slow things down and make teams work for a shot. They don’t press, they don’t extend defensively and they guard the perimeter well (31.5 percent 3-pointers against). They also shoot well from the ouside (40 percent from three) and are third in the nation in free-throw shooting (78.6 percent). If nothing else, it appears that UConn’s mostly one-man offense will have trouble separating, and that always leaves the door open for some late-game heroics.
Old Dominion (9) over Butler (8)
No result in an 8-9 game should ever really be considered an upset, but Old Dominion seems to be a very safe bet. Butler is nowhere near as talented as the team that came up inches shy of beating Duke in last year’s national championship game. ODU is a rough group that likes to bang the glass and play defense. Butler’s Matt Howard (16.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg) will have a tough time battling with the ODU frontcourt, so Butler will likely be forced to play a finesse game and make lots of jumpers. It still has Shelvin Mack (15.2 ppg), so shot-making is not a weakness, but it might be too much to ask to physically compete today.
The rest:
There is plenty of talk that Belmont (13) will knock off Wisconsin (4), but I don’t see this one coming to fruition. The Badgers are well-coached and difficult to play against for the first time. Let’s not forget that they beat Ohio State this season… Princeton (13) will probably be able to hang with Kentucky (4) for a while, but the Wildcats’ athleticism will take over down the stretch… Penn State (10) is back in the tournament for the first time since 2001, taking on in-state rival Temple (7). Both teams play slow and deliberately, so if the Nittany Lions shoot well, they should win. If not, the Owls move on… West Virginia (5) seems like a logical team to go down early, but it gets to take on a Clemson (12) team that just played Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio, then flew to Tampa, Fla. and will play the region’s first game today. That sounds like a tall order. The Mountaineers should roll… Morehead State (13) has one of the most fascinating players in the country in Kenneth Faried. The 6 foot, 8 inch forward leads the nation in rebounding (14.5 rpg) and also scores 17.6 points a night. Louisville (4) will have to account for him, but tune in today to catch a glimpse, because the Cardinals have too much firepower and Coach Pitino should make it one and done for Morehead State… Perennial darling Gonzaga (11) will be in a dog fight with St. John’s (6). It is a toss-up game, but the Zags are nowhere near as battle-tested as the Johnnies. Coach Steve Lavin should be looking at a deep run in his first season with SJU, but overlooking Mark Few’s group would be a mistake.
