Before the season, it wouldn’t have been much of a stretch to predict that the four AFC teams still playing in the divisional round would be the Ravens, Steelers, Jets and Patriots. This weekend set up perfectly for probably the
Before the season, it wouldn’t have been much of a stretch to predict that the four AFC teams still playing in the divisional round would be the Ravens, Steelers, Jets and Patriots. This weekend set up perfectly for probably the two best rivalries the conference has going at the moment.
The NFC is a different story. The Packers had plenty of preseason hype, but needed to win their final two games just to get in as a wild card, while the Falcons, Seahawks and Bears would have offered pretty strong odds in Vegas.
Either way, these are the eight teams remaining vying for a shot at the Lombardi Trophy.
Today’s doubleheader will feature one of the league’s tightest matchups, as well as the game likely to produce the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
11:30 a.m., CBS
These squads are more than familiar with one another, battling it out for AFC North supremacy for the past decade.
They have played one another 17 times since 2003 and have each totaled exactly 302 points.
This will be the second time in three years they have met up in the postseason, with five of the seven previous meetings since 2008 decided by just three points, another by four and the “blowout” a 23-14 Steelers win in the ‘08 AFC Championship Game.
The Ravens were a 17-14 winner this past Oct. 3 in Pittsburgh, with the Steelers returning the favor in a 13-10 win Dec. 5 in Baltimore.
Joe Flacco and the Ravens dominated the Chiefs in the opening round last weekend, with the young quarterback looking very sharp and taking what the defense gave him. What it gave him was plenty of Todd Heap, as the tight end caught 10 passes for 108 yards. He is unlikely to get such production this week against the feisty Pittsburgh linebackers.
Flacco threw for 265 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while the Baltimore defense completely shut down Kansas City’s offense, amounting to a 30-7 victory at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Steelers present a much different challenge. Though their offensive line is a glaring weakness, they have a quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger who can extend plays and find receivers. He is playoff tested and has developed a great relationship with wide receiver Mike Wallace.
Wallace has developed into one of the league’s elite wideouts, though few are familiar with his name. He had 1,257 receiving yards this season, averaging a whopping 21.0 yards per catch, and hauled in 10 TDs.
The Baltimore secondary, though it has played much better the past six weeks than it did early in the season, is still the way to attack the Ravens. So productive days from Wallace, Hines Ward and Emmanuel Sanders are likely.
Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall has been terrific all season, but he could be bottled up by the vaunted Baltimore front seven.
Steelers safety Troy Polamalu is probable to play, despite an ankle injury. His presence is immeasurable and he can single-handedly swing the pendulum while on the field.
A close game is inevitable and the result will probably come down to how many plays Roethlisberger can make late in the game. He has more explosive weapons at his disposal than Flacco, plus the ability to improvise as well as anyone not named Michael Vick.
Pulling off back-to-back road wins is not as daunting for this experienced Baltimore team as it would be most others, but actually doing it will be a mighty task.
THE PICK:
STEELERS 17
RAVENS 13
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
3 p.m., FOX
The Falcons made a huge leap this season behind the efforts of third-year quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Roddy White, who was second in the NFL with 1,389 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
The duo became the best QB-WR combo in the league and — combined with the 1,371 rush yards from Michael Turner, third-best in the league — ran away with the NFC South, earning the top seed with a 13-3 record.
Atlanta went 7-1 at home, its bid for perfection stymied by a 17-14 loss to the Saints in Week 16.
But it handled its business all season long at the Georgia Dome and now has the comfort of home field on the road to the Super Bowl.
Turner has made himself one of the league’s top backs after coming out from under LaDainian Tomlinson’s shadow in San Diego into the Atlanta spotlight. He allows the Falcons the luxury of balance that is so difficult to game plan against.
In addition to White, “Matty Ice,” as he has been dubbed for his calm demeanor and comeback wins, also has future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez at tight end. Gonzalez is still an elite red-zone target and caught 70 passes this season.
Defensively, Atlanta gave up the fifth-fewest points per game in the league at 18.0 and employed a “bend-but-don’t-break” philosophy that obviously worked wonders.
Its counterpart this week finished the season giving up the second-fewest points per game, as Green Bay surrendered just 15.0 points a week.
The Packers have been an elite defensive unit since getting healthy and held the explosive Eagles to 16 points in the opening round.
That game showcased a new Green Bay attack as running back James Starks may have provided it with the dual threat it lacked all season. Starks ran for 123 yards and looked legitimate doing so.
Green Bay already has one of the best passing games in the league as Aaron Rodgers has become everything that the game’s top QBs are, now with a playoff victory to add to his stunning ability. The difficulty for this team, other than the massive injuries, has been the inability to put teams away late by running the ball.
The Packers had more teams come back on them than they should have and were involved in a number of tight contests where an even mildly effective run game could have made an enormous difference.
If Starks can be that player, the Packers have every reason to accept all the praise being piled upon them. Green Bay has been loved by NFL viewers in recent weeks, with good reason, but not faces its toughest challenge to date.
Another close game is in order for a game that probably should be considered the NFC Championship Game. When a game seems this even and one side seems to be getting all the love, going with public sentiment can be dangerous.
THE PICK:
FALCONS 26,
PACKERS 24
2010 Playoff record: 2-2
