LIHU‘E — Don’t get too comfortable in the knowledge that Hawai‘i made it through the first half of its annual hurricane season without a single named storm, a Civil Defense official said. The last two storms to hammer Kaua‘i were
LIHU‘E — Don’t get too comfortable in the knowledge that Hawai‘i made it through the first half of its annual hurricane season without a single named storm, a Civil Defense official said.
The last two storms to hammer Kaua‘i were second-half smashers, coming in September and November. The central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
The absence of a named storm over the first three months of the 2010 Pacific hurricane season means the next 75 days or so could see an increased chance of some high winds and heavy rains heading toward the Hawaiian Islands, said Mark Marshall, head of the Kaua‘i Civil Defense Agency.
“We’ve been lucky. That’s a good thing,” he said.
La Nina conditions result in cooler ocean temperatures than normal, which generally means fewer cyclonic events. This prompted National Weather Service forecasters to predict three to four named storms this hurricane season, down from an average of four to five, he said.
But Marshall cautioned that “it only takes one of these storms to menace us or do damage.”
He advocates preparing or updating family and business survival kits and plans to include five-to-seven-day supplies of non-perishable food, water, medicine, pet food and other items. Such plans and provisions are necessary whether it’s the half of the year when hurricanes can strike or the rest of the year.
“Tsunamis have no seasons,” Marshall said, noting that from his experience a very dry summer like Kaua‘i has been experiencing usually gives way to a very wet winter, which can mean flash flooding and other torrential rains.
“I think prudent people would prepare for the worst and hope for the best,” said Marshall, adding that just because it has been nearly 20 years since the last hurricane it is no time to become complacent.
At the Civil Defense Emergency Operations Center there are around 100 cases of ready-to-eat meals (MREs) and 12 to 20 cases of water, blankets, pillows, “all creature-comfort stuff,” because once the EOC is activated the place on the first floor below the Kaua‘i Police Department offices near Lihu‘e Airport is something of a second home for Marshall.
At his real home elsewhere in Lihu‘e there is a 20-to-30-day supply of non-perishable foods, with the oldest stuff brought out for regular meals to ensure what’s left is fresh in the event of a storm.
Speaking from experience, Marshall says people should equip their emergency-food pantries with easy-to-prepare foods that they enjoy eating, things that can be consumed cold if no heating mechanisms are available, and to be sure a manual can opener is part of that emergency food supply.
The time to prepare such items is not once a hurricane watch or warning is issued, because even those with long-term memory lapses will recall what the stores were like when there was a tsunami watch issued after the Chilean earthquake earlier this year.
“Take an all-hazards approach,” said Marshall, especially with the knowledge that a seismic event off the Big Island that creates a destructive tsunami would give Kaua‘i coastal residents a scant 40 minutes to evacuate.
Tsunamis can move at the speed of a jet, he said.
There is a danger that residents might be well-prepared for a hurricane but ill-prepared for a tsunami or flash flood, or vice versa, said Marshall, reiterating taking the “all-hazards approach” to pre-disaster planning efforts.
The fact that the NWS has increased by 12 hours the time when hurricane watches (from 36 to 48 hours before anticipated arrival) and warnings (from 24 to 36 hours) are issued, and better technology to track and predict routes of storms, the bottom line is still that prior preparation is crucial, he said.
Hurricane-chase planes don’t fly at night, satellite imagery is more effective in daylight hours, and while forecasters have gotten much better at determining tracks of storms, there is still a bit of guesswork involved in predicting storm intensity, he said.
Even with forecasters using eight mathematical computer models and armed with a bit of certainty when five or six of the models agree on track and estimated intensity, “there is (still) a human element,” a lead forecaster who must make the call as to what track a storm is predicted to take, with nature’s variables including wind sheer decapitating a storm or warm ocean waters suddenly intensifying a body of weather at one time considered non-threatening to be considered, said Marshall.
He recently returned from O‘ahu and a three-day NWS course on hurricanes, where he learned more about the “forensics of forecasts.”
While it may at times reveal frightening information, he advises members of the public to use NWS online resources to track storms. The website of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc, is a good place to start.
Mobile phone apps also allow people to track storms in the palms of their hands.
• Paul C. Curtis, assistant editor and staff writer, can be reached at 245-3681 (ext. 224) or pcurtis@kauaipubco.com.
