It’s Oscar time I Locals make predictions

It’s Oscar time.

Hollywood’s biggest night, when the best of the best will be named, is Sunday, and just about every entertainment Web site has been posting predictions.

Associated Press movie critics David Germain and Christy Lemire collaborated for their picks, both tabbing “Brokeback Mountain” to win the ultimate prize of best picture, despite the fact that both say it wasn’t even that strong of a movie.

Lemire wrote that “Brokeback” will win because academy voters feel they will be making an important social statement with it.

We here on Kaua‘i formed our own opinions on who we think should win, and predictions on who will actually win the coveted Oscars in the biggest categories.

I discussed my picks with self-proclaimed movie maven and professional actor Ross Martineau of Kapa‘a, and Matt Blair of the Kukui Grove Cinemas in Lihu‘e.

Martineau studied acting at the University of New Hampshire, and holds a master’s degree in acting from the American Conservatory Theatre in San Francisco. He most recently played to role of Lumiere in the recent Kauai Community Players and Hawaii Children’s Theatre production of “Beauty and The Beast.”

Blair, when not playing the movies, is watching them.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: George Clooney, “Syriana;” Matt Dillon, “Crash;” Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella Man;” Jake Gyllenhaal, “Brokeback Mountain;” William Hurt, “A History of Violence.”

Should win:

LC: Matt Dillon. Dillon as a racist cop got to me. There were times when I just wanted to slap his character because I was so angry at him. Out of the five men nominated, his performance was the one that evoked the most emotion from me.

RM: William Hurt. OK, so he was in the film for (only) 10 minutes and, granted, it may have seemed like he was in a different film than everyone else, but what an amazing 10 minutes. Though he chewed up the scenery and was fantastically over the top, he’ll have to settle for the honor of a nomination.

MB: Paul Giamatti should win because he was snubbed from even getting nominated for an Oscar last year.

Will win: George Clooney.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominated: Amy Adams, “Junebug;” Catherine Keener, “Capote;” Frances McDormand, “North Country;” Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener;” Michelle Williams, “Brokeback Mountain.”

Should win:

LC: Rachel Weisz. As the passionate humanitarian who hides her efforts from her husband, she was excellent.

RM: Michelle Williams. Her heartbreaking performance as a woman holding a secret and struggling to keep her marriage together is unforgettable. I can’t shake her reaction to seeing her husband, played by Heath Ledger, kissing his ‘fishing buddy.’ It was an emotional punch in the gut.

MB: Catherine Keener. Anybody whose career can survive ‘Death to Smoochie’ and be nominated for an Academy Award deserves it.

Will win: Weisz.

Best Actor

Nominated: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote;” Heath Ledger, “Brokeback Mountain;” Terrence Howard, “Hustle & Flow;” Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk the Line;” David Straithairn, “Good Night, and Good Luck.”

Should win:

LC: Philip Seymour Hoffman. Have you seen footage of Truman Capote?

RM: Philip Seymour Hoffman. As Truman Capote, Hoffman’s is the performance to beat. He was able to show all sides of the man: a witty, alcoholic, self-loathing cad, and not only made him real (without being a caricature), but made us feel sorry for him.

MB: Brad Pitt for ‘Mr. and Mrs. Smith.’ He’s not nominated, but anyone who can have Jennifer Aniston and Angelina Jolie in the same year deserves an award.

Will win: Hoffman.

Best Actress

Nominated: Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line;” Charlize Theron, “North Country;” Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica;” Keira Knightley, “Pride & Prejudice;” Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents.”

Should win:

LC: Reese Witherspoon. Huffman is a serious contender, but she can’t touch Witherspoon in her portrayal of June Carter Cash.

RM: Felicity Huffman. Along with Hoffman’s, another tour-de-force performance: funny, charming, touching, pathetic, and barely recognizable. She truly became Bree, a male-to-female transsexual on the brink of the ‘final change.’ Unfortunately, no one has seen the film.

MB: Write-in Diane Lane for ‘Must Love Dogs.’ I’ve had a crush on her forever — 22 years — so she should win an award for everything she does.

Will win: Witherspoon.

Best Director

Nominated: Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain;” Bennett Miller, “Capote;” Paul Haggis, “Crash;” George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck;” Steven Spielberg, “Munich.”

Should win:

LC: Paul Haggis. ‘Crash’ was such an amazing film, and Haggis captured the essence of the message beautifully.

RM: Ang Lee. Hype can be murderous to a film, and this one has been so hyped-up, people are going, expecting to be blown away. Lee took this story of ill-fated love and not only made it accessible, but tears your heart out while doing it.

MB: Ang Lee. After the ‘Hulk’ bombed he had to bounce back.

Will win: Lee.

Best Picture

Nominated: “Brokeback Mountain;” “Crash;” “Good Night, and Good Luck;” “Capote;” and “Munich.”

Should win:

LC: ‘Crash.’ I liked how Haggis wasn’t afraid to get ugly with the stereotypes in the film. I think a film is supposed to make you feel something. ‘Crash’ made me angry, hopeful and sad. Stirring of emotions is good. That means it’s doing its job.

RM: ‘Brokeback Mountain.’ There is as much being said in the silences as there is in the dialogue. I think this film will stand the test of time, and perhaps be looked upon as the ‘Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner?’ of the gay-rights movement.

MB: ‘Cinderella Man’ should win, but wasn’t nominated. ‘Brokeback’s’ going to win. I don’t why, but it’s going to win.

Will win: Toss up between the two men and me. I say ‘Crash’ will upset. ‘Million Dollar Baby’ upset ‘The Aviator’ last year. I hope it upsets the favorite ‘Brokeback Mountain.’

The Academy Awards pre-show is at 6 p.m. on KITV 4.

 Lanaly Cabalo, lifestyle writer, may be reached at 245-3681 (ext. 237) or lcabalo@kauaipubco.com.

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