In the spring of 1994, there were early rumbles of a political earthquake. The Democrats controlled the White House and both houses of Congress, but in two bellwether special elections to fill out the terms of retiring Democrats, Republicans emerged
In the spring of 1994, there were early rumbles of a political earthquake. The Democrats controlled the White House and both houses of Congress, but in two bellwether special elections to fill out the terms of retiring Democrats, Republicans emerged victorious.
That’s why Democrats cheered extra loudly when Democrat Stephanie Herseth won Tuesday’s special election in South Dakota to replace Republican Rep. Bill Janklow, who resigned after being charged with highway manslaughter. South Dakota is a Republican stronghold and the fact that Herseth — a young, pro-choice woman — was able to defeat her opponent, state Sen. Larry Diedrich, a farmer in the rural state, buoyed the hopes of Democrats that they might benefit from a national wave of support in November.
It was the second special election where a Democrat prevailed at the expense of the Republicans, the first being in Kentucky, where Democrats picked up a seat in February. As Kentucky and South Dakota go, so goes the nation, is the rallying cry for Democrats. But Republicans say there is no evidence yet of a national trend, and they’re determined to come back in November when Herseth has to face the voters again, and reclaim South Dakota for the GOP.
Herseth has history on her side. With only a single exception since 1996 has the winner of a special election failed to win again in November. Herseth benefited from name recognition. Her grandfather is a former governor of the state, and her father served in the state legislature. But she is by no means safe. She entered the race with a 30-point advantage, and won with 51 percent of the vote in a cliffhanger that wasn’t decided until the next day.
A thinly populated state, it’s hard to think of South Dakota as a bellwether for the nation. Senate minority leader Tom Daschle, the state’s senior senator, boasts that he does “Good Morning South Dakota” every day, but it’s not a radio show. He calls every resident personally. Actually that’s not far from the truth when you consider the millions Daschle has spent over the last year in television advertising to defend his Senate seat.
Daschle is in a tight race with former Rep. John Thune, who lost his Senate bid two years ago by only 534 votes against South Dakota’s other senator, Tim Johnson. The ad blitz bought Daschle a 13-point lead in the polls, but that could disappear once Thune begins his advertising campaign. Republicans point out that it’s unnatural for a state so strongly in the GOP camp to have a solidly Democratic congressional delegation.
President Bush’s slide in the polls is dampening Republican prospects in Congress, where the GOP has a two-seat edge in the Senate and an 11-seat margin in the House. Five retiring Democrats in the Senate were supposed to provide easy pick-ups for the GOP, but the faltering economy and the loss of manufacturing jobs have opened up opportunities for the Democrats. Democrats point with pride to the moderate candidates they have selected, particularly former Clinton budget director Erskine Bowles in North Carolina and state education commissioner Inez Tenenbaum, a proven vote-getter, in South Carolina.
Having a Massachusetts liberal at the top of the ticket could be a downer for Democrats, but Kerry is running a centrist campaign and reaching out to swing voters. There is growing anecdotal evidence of Kerry Republicans, voters who backed Bush on the Iraq war but are disappointed in his handling of the postwar U.S. occupation. The fact that Kerry’s policy on Iraq is almost identical to the one Bush now supports makes the decision for these voters less about policy than competence in prosecuting the war.
The ’94 political upheaval catapulted conservative Republicans into power. If history repeats itself, moderate Republicans voters could reclaim the Congress for the Democrats.
