It’s really hard to identify what has been happening with John John Florence this season. He appears to still be the same laid-back but destructive competitor that we’ve come to expect during his past two world championship crowning campaigns. The results, however, have not been there as he’s fallen in early stages to much less accomplished opponents.
His current 21st-place ranking will only drop further with Tuesday’s news that he will be pulling out from the Uluwatu contest this week after sustaining a leg injury during a Bali freesurf. The injury may keep him out longer than just this event, putting any chance at a third straight world title in extreme peril.
Florence is of course capable of stringing together huge runs and dominating the tour for extended periods, but the math is very much against that outcome.
Since the Championship Tour has gone to its 11-contest schedule, about 55,000 points have been required to be in a position to win the world title. Some have been much higher than that, but it’s a good estimate that at least puts the surfer in striking distance.
As he won’t be improving on his current 13th-place result in Uluwatu, Florence is going to have just 9,115 points through five completed events. He would essentially need to pick up about 48,000 points over the final six contests (while dropping a 25th and 13th from his current results as throwaways) to be in that championship ballpark.
That number of points means he would need to average at least a second-place result at every stop the rest of the way. Even winning all six contests would leave him below Kelly Slater’s insane 2011 season, when he finished with 68,100 points.
I’m never one to count out Florence, but given that we don’t even know if he’s going to surf every event from here on out, his world title campaign seems to have officially concluded.
So without the biggest shark in the water, who steps into that role as top predator?
Right now, it has to be Italo Ferreira. Not only does he have the yellow jersey, but Ferreira appears to be fully healed from previous injuries and surfing each stop with extreme confidence and precision. His win last week in Keramas gives him two victories on the season and he has a great chance at another big result this week.
Ferreira will take on rookie Michael Rodrigues in his third-round heat at Uluwatu with people like Florence, Matt Wilkinson, Ace Buchan and Frederico Morais already out of the field, having been defeated early at the original Margaret River location. He seemed so comfortable at Keramas and if those Bali vibes continue to stay with him, he could build a solid lead almost halfway through the season.
The women’s field is down to eight, with Tatiana Weston-Webb and Carissa Moore facing off in the most significant quarterfinal heat. Weston-Webb is currently third in the CT rankings and very much in the world title hunt. Moore would like to be back in that picture and can be with a big result in Uluwatu, but she has yet to advance beyond this quarterfinal round this year.
Lakey Peterson holds the yellow jersey and will take on Tyler Wright in the quarters. Stephanie Gilmore is now chasing her in second place as she goes up against Bronte Macaulay. Nikki Van Dijk and Johanne Defay face off in the fourth quarterfinal heat.
The sights and sounds of Uluwatu are far different than Margaret River, where this event technically began. Some more time in Bali seems to be a welcomed addition to the competitors, who could get the action underway Thursday.
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David Simon can be reached at dsimon@thegardenisland.com.
