You know how each year you say to yourself, “I’ll remember to include more upsets in my March Madness bracket next year” because the chalk always lets you down? Hopefully, the 2018 version of you took that 2017 version’s advice because this tournament has been nuts from the get go.
A quick scan of the South and West regions shows No. 3 Michigan — a team that was fifth in its conference — as the lowest-seeded team remaining on that entire half of the bracket. We knew that there was plenty of parity in college basketball this year, but not even parity can explain what happened over the first four days of competition.
I was in San Diego for the first round of action and I got to see 13-seed Marshall take down Wichita State in person. At the time, that felt like a decent shocker, but it’s not even in the top five most memorable upsets or moments of the opening weekend.
No matter what happens from here, this tournament will be forever remembered as the year UMBC beat Virginia. The scenario has been a possibility for a while now, but the Retrievers finally did what can never be equaled. They are forever the first No. 16 seed to take down a No. 1 and they will be the trivia answer we’ll all reflect on fondly from here on out.
In addition to that seemingly impossible result, Buffalo crushing Arizona, Loyola-Chicago getting a friendly bounce to the Sweet 16, Syracuse emerging from the First Four to the second week, Texas A&M smashing North Carolina and Nevada overcoming a 22-point deficit against Cincinnati have rendered most of our brackets useless for anything other than kindling.
So with all the craziness, are there any more upsets on the horizon? Or has it all fizzled out enough to let the few top dogs remaining feast on the scraps?
The one thing that resonated most for me during the first week is that Duke is definitely the best team in the country. No, they haven’t had the toughest path to this point, but they did what so many other top seeds were unable to do — they took care of business against lesser opponents.
The Blue Devils have a pretty staggering combination of interior skill and perimeter depth. Marvin Bagley Jr. is exactly as advertised and he makes Duke the heavy favorite at this point, in my eyes.
While the Syracuse zone is difficult to prepare for, which we’ve seen each time the Orange have made these runs in March, Duke has what it takes to overwhelm opponents. That’s exactly what’s going to happen this week.
Prior to the tournament, I picked Villanova to win the national championship. I no longer expect that outcome and the Wildcats have a big test coming up on Friday. No. 5 seed West Virginia has been very impressive in its wins over Murray State and Marshall. This will be a huge step up in opposing talent, but the Mountaineers play stellar defense, pressure for 40 minutes and have one of the toughest guards in the country. Jevon Carter finishes everything at the rim, makes the right decision consistently and has the mental makeup to put his team on his back when necessary.
This game probably pits two of the four best teams remaining in the field, which is a shame, but West Virginia seems primed to pull off an upset of their own.
The South region is a free for all at this point, with the top four seeds all having been eliminated. No. 5 Kentucky appears to be the favorite to get to the Final Four, but No. 7 Nevada may be the better bet. The Wolfpack somehow came back from 22 down to beat No. 2 Cincinnati after surviving overtime against Texas. They may have destiny on their side and though they are limited athletically, the intangibles could make up the difference and get them to San Antonio.
Michigan also knows a thing or two about destiny. The Wolverines were all but dead in the water in the waning seconds on Saturday, but a few events conspired to send them to week two on a buzzer-beating heave against Houston. That makes 11 consecutive wins for the Big Ten champs and they’re certainly peaking at the right time.
So while half the bracket is fairly chalky and the other half is a previously unimaginable horror show, there will be more of each this week. I expect Duke to be standing when all is said and done, but expecting anything has been unwise to this point.
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David Simon can be reached at dsimon@thegardenisland.com.
