I was 3-1 in last week’s predictions. Pretty good, but it wasn’t as if I made any bold predictions.
My one blemish was the Tennessee Titans rallying to stun the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.
In the box score, Hawaii’s own Marcus Mariota throws a 6-yard pass to himself for a touchdown. Seriously, how funny and cool is that?
Good for Mariota, and good for Tua Tagovailoa.
I can imagine a lot of football fans in the state had a helluva time the last few days as Mariota led the Titans to advance in the NFL playoffs and Tagovailoa, too, led a second half charge to lead Alabama to a come-from-behind overtime win over Georgia in the College Football Playoff Championship.
My social media newsfeed was buzzing with notifications from local friends raving about the two quarterbacks from Oahu.
Great for you guys, but now we look forward.
Here’s my predictions for this weekend’s NFL divisional round matchups:
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots; Patriots -13.5 favorite
I’d hate to again think Mariota will come out on the losing end. I already was wrong last week.
But, come on. This is the New England Patriots. This is the Evil Empire that is Tom Brady, Bill Bellichick and the Pats.
Brady, amazingly at age 40, finished the regular season leading the league in passing yards with 4,577. He also had 32 passing touchdowns to eight interceptions and had a rating of 102.8.
Maybe the Titans can make a game of it. Riding high off beating the Chiefs, I think the Titans can do some damage against a Pats team ranked 29th in total defense according to ESPN — one ranking lower than the Chiefs.
Against a Pats D ranked 30th against the pass, maybe Mariota can one more time lead the Titans to win on the road in another barnburner and advance to the AFC Championship.
As much as I wish it for Mariota and you local fans, I’m not going against conventional wisdom here. Sorry. Pick: Patriots.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles; Falcons -3 favorite
I chose Matt Ryan and and the defending NFC champion Falcons, with their experience, to beat the upstart Los Angeles Rams.
So far, so good. This time, the Falcons play another upstart team in the Philadelphia Eagles.
Philly earned the No. 1 seed after finishing the season 13-3, but are now the first No. 1 seed to open as an underdog in the playoffs according to STATS.
The Eagles lost quarterback Carson Wentz after suffering a torn ACL in December. Too bad, because a matchup between a former MVP in Ryan and a possible MVP in Wentz would have been great playoff drama.
Now, the Eagles turn to Nick Foles, who returned to the team this season as Wentz’s backup.
Foles was a Pro Bowler for Philadelphia in 2013. Perhaps he can find some of that former magic on Saturday. But I’m not betting on it.
Ryan and the Falcons are on a roll. Though only slight favorites, I expect the Falcons to win and roll on to the NFC Championship. Pick: Falcons.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers; Steelers -7 favorite
I thought the wild card game between the Jags and the Buffalo Bills would be a matchup of running backs. I was wrong. So wrong.
Though the Jaguars won to advance, it was probably as ugly as a playoff game could get.
I thought Jags RB Leonard Fournette would have his way against a low-ranked Bills run defense. He had 57 yards running on 21 carries. QB Blake Bortles was just 12-23 for 87 yards and a touchdown.
The Steelers’ fifth-ranked defense should have no problem if that’s what they can expect from the Jags’ offense.
However, the Jaguars routed the Steelers, 30-9, at Heinz Field earlier this season. In that game, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger threw a career-high five interceptions.
Maybe that will have some lingering effects. But I expect the Big Ben and company to have long-already moved past that and perform as well as they usually do in the postseason. Pick: Steelers.
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings; Vikings -5 favorite
I said last week Drew Brees will have one last great playoff run, and I chose right in picking the Saints over the Carolina Panthers.
Brees now faces a tall order in the Vikings No. 1 ranked defense. But I’m sticking with Brees.
Minnesota did beat New Orleans at home, 29-19, to start the season — then with Sam Bradford as the starting QB but has since gone down to injury.
Journeyman QB Case Keenum has been great for the Vikes since Bradford ended his season. This season, Keenum has posted a passer rating of 100.0 or better eight times.
Keenum deserves a lot of credit, and the Vikings will have to make a decision in the offseason as to who should be their starter.
But Brees is a future hall of famer. Even against the Vikings vaunted defense, I believe he’ll somehow lift his team and advance to the NFC title game. Pick: Saints.
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Nick Celario can be reached at ncelario@thegardenisland.com.
